The new measures will be renewed monthly.Ĭoronavirus cases in the UK have been rising in recent weeks. He added that restaurants will likely be allowed to remain open, an agreement likely come to between local leaders and the government. Political Correspondent Paul Brand reported that pubs, gyms, casinos and betting shops in Merseyside will likely be closed and the tougher restrictions could be in place for six months. Nottingham continues to have the highest rate in England, with 2,763 new cases recorded in the seven days to October 8 – the equivalent of 830.0 cases per 100,000 people. Latest figures suggest Liverpool has almost 600 cases of coronavirus per 100,000 people. Merseyside is likely to be the first area to have Tier Three restrictions imposed on it. On Sunday, Prof Van Tam warned the country is at a tipping point similar to the first wave of coronavirus and that measures must be taken to prevent history repeating itself. A country may see regional variations in its R number, depending on local factors like population density and transport patterns.Also on Monday, England's Deputy Chief Medical Officer Professor Jonathan Van Tam will give a "public data briefing" alongside representatives from the NHS. It depends on the biology of the virus people's behaviour, such as social distancing and a population’s immunity. The reproduction number is not fixed, though. That means each person would pass it on to between two and three people on average, before either recovering or dying, and each of those people would pass it on to a further two to three others, causing the total number of cases to snowball over time.
Anything below 1 and an outbreak will fizzle out – eventually.Īt the start of the coronavirus pandemic, the estimated R for coronavirus was between 2 and 3 – higher than the value for seasonal flu, but lower than for measles. For an R of anything above 1, an epidemic will grow exponentially. It’s the average number of people on to whom one infected person will pass the virus. R, or the 'effective reproduction number', is a way of rating a disease’s ability to spread.
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